Northwest Women’s Regional Preview

2013 College Series

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Oregon Fugue, UBC Thunderbirds, and Washington Element walk into the College Championships…and then Victoria Vixens shows up. If you want to say the regular season doesn’t matter, talk to these four teams. After four strong regular seasons, they’ll be able to sleep a little bit easier going into a Regional tournament with four bids to the College Championships. Whitman and Western Washington don’t plan on it being a picnic, eying that fourth bid and a Victoria team with limited experience on the big stage.

The Northwest fielded two of the Finalists at last year’s College Championships in Oregon and Washington. Their top four teams have been widely considered four of the top 10 (depending on how people view Victoria), and you have to consider this a Region with multiple title contenders. That’s a lot of pressure. These players all know one another well, seeing each other all year long. Winning this tournament could result in a number one seed at the College Championships. “Although there are four bids out of our region, we do not take a bid to Nationals lightly,” noted senior Captain of #1 seed Oregon Fugue, Lily Herd, “Our goal is to win this weekend so that we can go into Nationals with a high seeding.” There’s a lot of pride in winning the most prestigious region in Women’s Ultimate, so expect that to be on display in Eugene this weekend.

Here’s the seedings (by my estimate) and pools:

  1. Oregon (PC #1)
  2. British Columbia (PC #2)
  3. Washington (PC #3)
  4. Victoria (PC #4)
  5. Whitman (NW-III #1)
  6. Western Washington (PC #5)
  7. Pacific Lutheran (NW-III #2)
  8. Montana (SKY #1)

Pool A: Oregon, Victoria, Whitman, Montana

Pool B: British Columbia, Washington, Western Washington, Pacific Lutheran

Pool winners make the Final and lock up a bid. Second place in each pool gets you into a game to go, with the loser falling into another game to go. Every team is in the running Sunday.

Pool Play

Pool A

#1 overall seed Oregon Fugue may be the favorite going into Madison, should they qualify (I have to write that part). They won both Stanford Invite and Pres Day, losing only one game all season (8-12 to UBC).Their roster is, as usual, stacked like an All-Star team. Junior Sophie Darch’s handling, where she often makes dominating her matchup look effortless, anchors the offensive line, with the dynamic cutting of senior Kimber Coles and a number of tall and athletic downfield targets, like playmaking sophomore Bethany Kaylor. On defense, Skyd Five Callahan nominee senior Bailey Zahniser propels their D-line’s offense with her take-no-prisoners approach of throwing anything and everything. “We have a bit of our target on our backs, going into Regionals the #1 seed,” acknowledged Herd, with sophomore Jesse Shofner adding, “Every team is giving you their best. It’s fun.” They’re the type of team that imposes their will, their speedy disc movement and aggressive cutting capped off with monster spikes in the endzone. They will turn it, and the only way to beat them is to be efficient when they give you those opportunities, which is a lot easier to write than it is to do. They’ve taken on the personality of Coach Lou Burruss, meaning on the field, they are passionate, wear their hearts on their sleeves, and are fiercely loyal to one another, operating under their difficult-to-explain Clown Tent (SS) philosophy. When I asked Herd about Fugue’s attitude, she replied “Work hard, have fun.” She went on to explain about finding the balance between those two. Shofner spoke to the team’s bonds, saying “We love each other, and we’re all unified through our [Clown Tent].” When they are all clicking, they’re a whirling dervish of Ds, hucks, spikes, smiles, cheering, and they’re the best team in the country.

A smiling happy energetic Fugue is a dangerous Fugue

A smiling happy energetic Fugue is a dangerous Fugue

The Victoria Vixens are the upstart of this season, and a bit of a lightning rod. The drama comes from a team that traveled to just two tournaments – Santa Barbara Invite and Stanford Invite – and didn’t play again until the Series. Without competing outside of California, they piled up enough good results to be USAU’s 9th ranked team. Wins over UC-Santa Barbara, Sonoma State, and a beating on Stanford powered their rank. They only lost one game – a close one against Western Washington – before the Series. Makes sense people would have doubts. Once they arrived at Conference Championships, however, they kept pace with Oregon, Washington, and UBC, though they also edged Western Washington by just two, demonstrating they are no flash in the pan. Victoria plays a smart and very skilled game, with a number of throwing threats, ranging from the hucks of Jen Brown and Corrinne Dunwoody to the break work from Katie Hikida. Out of their ho stack, they are adept at using field space, opening up the field for those throwers to work with. With lower seeds gunning for them, Victoria can’t afford to give them opportunities.

The Whitman Lady Sweets are a team on the middle ground coming into Regionals. They lack marquee wins from their two tournament regular season, but beat solid teams, like Colorado College, Western Washington, and Texas A&M. However, of those three teams, they lost to the two they played more than once (CC and WW). Playing D-III in the first round of the Series, they rolled their competition, not telling us much. Jeremy Norden patrols the sideline for the Lady Sweets and Julia Bladin, a 2nd team All-Region selection last season, remains their go to option. They lost in the game to go last year, and could find themselves in the same situation this season.

Montana comes in as the final seed, having earned they way in with a win of their Conference. However, they have almost no reported results, giving us precious little information. Their 1-4 record from PLU BBQ, including a blowout loss to the host team, doesn’t bode well in such a hyper competitive Region; in 3 meetings with PLU, Whitman won each handily. Just putting up good scores will be a victory for a program looking to grow.

Pool B

The British Columbia Thunderbirds come in the second seed for the second year in a row. However, the past two years, they’ve played third fiddle to Oregon and Washington, and the subsequent College Championships performances (19th & 11th place) left them way behind their Northwest brethren. As one of the nation’s top ranked teams, the expectations are for this season to be different. “Washington is still a great team this year, but we have won against them more often than not,” stated senior Captain Rena Kawabata, adding, “And to have been the team that notched Oregon’s only loss this season says a lot about what we will be bringing to Regionals.” Of British Columbia’s five losses, only one has come from a team outside of the region: a 6-13 stumble against a white hot Wisconsin squad. They’re 3-1 against Washington, including two wins at CCs, and 1-3 against Oregon. It is setting up to be the year they break through, and the T-Bird women sense that, wanting more from themselves, Kawabata telling me, “No matter how many bids our region gets, our goal is always to take the 1st one. The fact that there are 4 is irrelevant. We will be playing to win Regionals and we will do whatever we need to do to make that happen.” Led by dynamite Skyd Five Callahan nominee Catherine Hui and fellow Traffic player Kawabata, as talented a duo as you’ll find in the college women’s game, UBC is a threat this year. They also return 2012 All-Region selection Crystal Koo, who does a lot of the heavy lifting behind the disc. “We are a receiver heavy team and we look to get the disc downfield as opposed to swinging to handlers,” noted Kawabata, referring to the extensive complement of tall, athletic, and experienced downfield players on their roster. A strong weekend at Regionals could prove crucial for their confidence and give a clue to how far they can go at the Championships.

UBC's Crystal Koo's handling abilities make her critical to the team's success

UBC’s Crystal Koo’s handling abilities make her critical to the team’s success

Washington Element comes into the weekend the three seed, but knowing they are still the country’s reigning champion and confident in their talent. Their regular season returns are actually a little underwhelming, with a 10-5 record that includes a blowout loss to Wisconsin and stumbles against British Columbia and UC-Santa Barbara. Their Series results also include losses to Oregon and UBC. They lost a lot of talent coming into the year in Leah Fury, Jillian Goodman, and Kristin Gruver, but also returned a loaded top end. Unfortunately, word is that Sarah “CO” Davis, the team’s Callahan nominee, will be missing the rest of the season with an injury. This’ll put more pressure on 2012 All-Region selection Amanda Kostic and cutters Shira Stern & Barb Hoover to lead their offensive line. Lucy Williams, 2012 All-Region selection Alysia Letourneau, and 2012 FOTY Sarah Edwards will hold things down on their talented defensive unit. Coach Kyle Weisbrod, in his first year with Element, has his work cut out for him with a teaming missing its star and losing the season series against their top rivals, but the talent and leadership of this team could push them to success.

Western Washington Chaos comes in very similar to Whitman – stuck in the middle ground. They’ve got a very solid resume, with wins over aforementioned Whitman, Texas A&M, Victoria, and Colorado College. At Champies, Chaos played tight games with UBC, Washington, and Victoria, indicating they may be closer to breaking through than their Pool A counterpart. The last close game is most notable, as they are gunning for the bid Victoria brought in. 2012 All-Region player Lindsey Miller returns, joining Riot’s Callie Mah (who would be a star at a more noted program) to form a very effective 1-2 punch. If they and some of their young talent are hitting the right notes, they could find themselves headed to Madison.

Pacific Lutheran, or PLU, comes into this weekend having lost just three sanctioned games on a fairly weak tournament docket. All three of those losses came at the hands of Whitman, all by a margin of nine or more. If PLU steps their game up this weekend, they can push one of the contenders, but otherwise, they may struggle against some of the game’s elite talent.


Pool Play

Pool A: Oregon, Victoria, Whitman, Montana

Pool B: British Columbia, Washington, Western Washington, Pacific Lutheran


Oregon over British Columbia

Second Place Bracket

Washington over Victoria

British Columbia over Washington

Fourth Place Bracket

Whitman over Pacific Lutheran

Western Washington over Montana

Western Washington over Whitman

Victoria over Western Washington

Final Thoughts

These teams have mostly played each other over and over, giving us larger sample sizes to look at than is typical. That’s why it is hard to see this tournament having too many upsets. Particularly with the loss of Sarah Davis, I think it’ll be tough for Washington to usurp UBC and may leave them vulnerable to a hungry Victoria team, but ultimately, their embarrassment of riches wins out. While I think Western Washington can and will push these top four, I can’t take them over any of the other four.

Women’s Bid Watch: First Looks

The much anticipated first USAU college rankings (Open, Women) came out yesterday afternoon, giving us our first taste of not only the national picture, but perhaps more importantly, which regions had earned bids so far and what teams were in position to move those bids around. Let’s take a look at the Top 20 (chosen because that’s the number of bids), the bid picture, and what to expect moving forward.

Top 20

  1. UBC (NW)
  2. Oregon (NW)
  3. Washington (NW)
  4. UCSB (SW)
  5. Carleton (NC)
  6. Victoria (NW)
  7. Colorado (SC)
  8. Iowa (NC)
  9. Whitman (NW)
  10. Stanford (SW)
  11. Sonoma State (SW)
  12. Colorado College (SC)
  13. California (SW)
  14. Western Washington (NW)
  15. Tufts (NE)
  16. Virginia (AC)
  17. UCSD (SW)
  18. MIT (NE)
  19. Ohio State (OV)
  20. Minnesota (NC)

Regions not represented here are the SE (#21 Georgia), GL (#30 Valparaiso), and ME (#60 Ottawa). The Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast regions had one team each in the Top 20 and they were both in the bottom 5. The Northwest and Southwest dominate these rankings, with the North Central falling just behind that. However, if you look a little closer, almost every team has only one tournament’s worth of sanctioned games – the majority of them either from Pres Day or the SB Invite for the west coast or Queen City for the east coast – and a few have some other scattered wins.

Bid Watch

Here’s a breakdown of, if the season were to end today, how the bids would shake out, with strength bids in parentheses and the teams earning those strength bids.

  • AC (0)
  • GL (0)
  • ME (0)
  • NE (0)
  • NC (1): #8 Iowa
  • NW (5): #2 Oregon, #3 Washington, #6 Victoria, #9 Whitman, #14 W. Washington
  • OV (0)
  • SC (1): #12 Colorado College
  • SE (0)
  • SW (3): #10 Stanford, #11 Sonoma State, #13 California

It isn’t hard to see how those Top 20 rankings translate into the Northwest and Southwest hogging all of the bids! This isn’t unusual. Last year – the first year of this bid system – there were five regions with no strength bids when the first rankings dropped. In 2011, if I correctly applied the current bid system to their rankings, it would have been another five 0 bid regions in the initial rankings. For reference, 2012’s final rankings had six regions with no strength bids (New England, Metro East, Great Lakes, South Central, South East, and Ohio Valley) and 2011 would have had four regions (ME, NE, OV, SE) with no strength bids. From what I see, it looks as if typically the bids spread to the regions already holding a bid, so you end up with a few 2/3 bid regions and one region with 4/5.

Looking at a few results, there are couple of things that could have made these rankings look different. Three teams (well, four, but one could have been either way) jump out at me as teams that could have changed the early bid picture: Texas, Iowa State, and either Central Florida or Florida State. Texas Melee’s location means they actually have seen a bunch of the Southwest teams ranked ahead of them at Pres Day. Of their five losses this season, three are at the hands Southwest teams, most notably a 7-12 loss to bid-holding California. If they beat USC, California, and keep it close with Oregon or UCSB, it wouldn’t surprise me if hold a bid, but alas. Iowa State Woman Scorned is a weird one to call out, because they are 12-2 with losses only to top 20 North Central teams. The issue, as far as rankings go, is that they are completely content to spread playing time and win games 15-13 and 13-11, even against lower ranked teams. Of their 12 wins, only three have come by six or more points (Maryland, Emory, Colorado St.) This lack of dominant wins hurts their numbers, keeping them from pushing high enough to take another bid for the North Central. Finally, the Southeast is a mess, as Georgia, Florida State, and Central Florida have beaten up on each other. If Central Florida only loses to Georgia at FWC and puts up those good scores at QCTU, they position the SE for another bid. The same is true of FSU, except they were a step away at QCTU. Georgia gets a pass for being the top ranked SE team.

The question at this point is what we should expect moving forward. Competition between the coasts kicks off this weekend with the Stanford Invite, where Carleton, and more importantly, North Carolina and Wisconsin – two teams not yet factoring into the bid picture – will compete with Northwest and Southwest teams. How these teams fare against the Southwest strength earners (California, Sonoma, and Stanford) will be important and I would be surprised if North Carolina didn’t yank a bid for the AC. The more important tournament is Women’s Centex in a couple of weekends, where the strength earners of the Northwest and Southwest will be attending and will see the top teams from pretty much every other region. The bid picture could change dramatically in Texas, where a Florida State, Pittsburgh, or Wash U could take extra bids off the hands of the evil empire of the NW and SW.

Keep tabs with the #BidWatch hashtag on twitter.